It's going to be an active weather week in the Ozarks. Everyone should be weather aware, especially on Wednesday. But before we get into Wednesday, Let's start with today (Monday).
(Monday May 6) There is an enhanced risk for severe weather in Central Kansas today and tonight. These storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. There is a small tornado risk as well. Over time, these storms are expected to form into a line, decreasing the super-cellular tornado risk but increasing the straight-line wind risk. The cities of Lebanon, Jefferson City and Kansas City are included in a slight risk, mainly due to a damaging wind threat. However this area could see some hail and a couple of spin-up tornadoes if storms do indeed go linear. There is a marginal risk for the cities of Springfield and Joplin. What this means is the storms are expected to lose some of their punch before they reach these areas, but could still be strong.
(Tuesday May 7) Severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern High Plains Tuesday; hail, wind and tornadoes are all expected. The worst weather for Tuesday will be in the Texas Panhandle, Western Oklahoma and Southwest Kansas, where an enhanced risk area has been placed. A slight risk does stretch into Missouri, so folks in Western and Central Missouri will need to remain weather aware on Tuesday.
(Wednesday May 8) This is the day we are most concerned about for our neck of the woods, since most of our followers will be under the gun for severe weather that day. The most severe storms are expected Thursday afternoon in parts of Central and Eastern Oklahoma, where an enhanced risk area has been placed. Baseball sized hail (or greater) and a few tornadoes will be possible. We will have to watch this area for a possible upgrade to a moderate risk. Closer to home, several waves of storms are expected to move through Wednesday morning and Wednesday night. The severe threat for the Ozarks depends on how much instability we have in place. If the atmosphere can become unstable enough between waves of storms, then we could expect some large hail and damaging winds, although a tornado can't be ruled out. Most of Missouri is under a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday.
Now, with all that said, one of the biggest areas of concern is flooding. The grounds are still saturated and waterways are still full from last week's heavy rains. Most deaths occur in flash flooding. If you see water over the road, just turn around. It's really that simple.
We will continue watching the models and will be keeping an eye on radar for the next few days. You can track the severe weather right on our website, StormdarWeather.com, by clicking on the Severe Weather tab.