The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a 15% chance of severe weather in the area on Thursday. But what does that mean? It means on Thursday, the SPC has indicated that
severe weather could occur within 25 miles of any point in the highlighted area. It is too early to classify into the main SPC categories (marginal/slight/enhanced/moderate/high). That is only done for the Days 1, 2, and 3 Convective Outlooks. This is a Day 4 Convective Outlook. We will see tomorrow on the Day 3 Convective Outlook whether this warrants a slight risk.
Why are we watching Thursday for severe weather chances? There is a powerful cold front slated to move through. There will be enough low-level moisture ahead of the front to support instability, which will potentially cause strong to severe storms to develop along and ahead of the front as it moves through. There are still some timing issues between models, but the general consensus is the front will move through the 15% area Thursday evening. It could be later for parts of the Ozarks.
Could the severe weather area on Thursday be expanded or condensed? Absolutely. We will just have to wait and see. That's why we call it "something to watch".
As always, will keep you up-to-date on the latest weather updates on our Facebook page and at StormdarWeather.com. We will hit this much harder on Tuesday and Wednesday.