Updated: May 18, 2019
At least a couple of rounds of severe weather are possible over the next few days, with the first threat coming today. Folks in the Stormdar Forecast Area will need to monitor StormdarWeather.com and Facebook.com/StormdarWeather throughout the day on Saturday as a potent storm system will be affecting the area.
Saturday Set Up - The Storm Prediction Center has placed an Enhanced Severe Risk area for extreme Southwest/South Central Missouri (including Branson) that stretches over the western half of Arkansas down into Eastern/Southeastern Oklahoma. A few showers and thunderstorms could develop as early as Friday night/Saturday morning over parts of Kansas and Missouri, but this won't be the main show. In fact, if the early showers can persist into the day on Saturday, it would bring the severe threat down since the atmosphere wouldn't have as long to recover. However, this isn't expected to happen. According to models, the atmosphere will have plenty of time to destabilize before a cold front moves through on Saturday afternoon/evening. Storms are expected to fire along and ahead of the front. They are expected to form into a squall line, which means the primary threats would be damaging winds and large hail with the possibility of a spin-up tornado. A tornado risk would be greater for any discreet supercells that can fire up ahead of the cold front. We will be keeping an eye on the situation.
Tuesday Set up - The atmosphere will have plenty of time to recover before a classic spring storm system sets up across the nation’s midsection on Monday and Tuesday. These storms could pack more of a punch than Saturday's storms. As of now, models are indicating the atmosphere could be set up for a more super-cellular event with all modes of severe weather possible, with the chance of a few large tornadoes.
Storms are expected to fire in Western Oklahoma and North Texas on Monday. This area has been placed under a 30% severe weather risk for Monday afternoon/evening. The storm system will move east on Tuesday and will affect all of Missouri and Arkansas, as well as eastern Oklahoma and Kansas. We will be monitoring forecasts and models to see if the tornado threat will continue into our area. As of now, the SPC has a 15% chance that severe weather will affect the area on Tuesday. This may not seem significant, but we are still pretty far out from this event. It should definitely be watched as the forecast and threat level will be refined.
As always, you can monitor the Severe Weather Outlooks on our Severe Weather page at StormdarWeather.com/severeweather.